Skip to content Skip to main navigation Skip to footer

Business Day in Madison 2025

Last week, I had the privilege of attending Business Day in Madison, hosted by the Wisconsin State Chamber of Commerce. The event drew nearly 900 business leaders from across the state — and it did not disappoint!  The day kicked off with an inspiring keynote by Steve Jones, a professional leadership coach who shared his powerful story of overcoming a difficult childhood thanks to one caring teacher and coach. His message was a moving reminder that leadership starts with compassion and genuine care for others. Bank of America then hosted Joseph Quinlan and Lauren Sanfilippo from their Chief Investment Office in New York, who shared an in-depth look at the North American Economic Outlook — a timely discussion as businesses plan for the year ahead. One of the most anticipated sessions each year is the Geopolitical, Trade, and Global Economic Outlook, and this year’s presentation by Peter Zeihan was no exception. His insights were both sobering and hopeful — particularly for Wisconsin — and refreshingly balanced from a political standpoint. Zeihan offered thought-provoking analysis on global trends and how they’re shaping our state’s economic opportunities.

  • Joseph Quinlan, Managing Director and Head of Market Strategy at Bank of America Chief Investment Office, Bank of America,
  • Lauren Sanfilippo, Director, Senior Investment Strategy Analyst at Chief Investment Office, Bank of America.
  • Mark Hasting, CEO & President, Blain’s Farm & Fleet
  • Rob Gerbitz, President & CEO, Hendricks Commercial Properties, LLC.
  • Diane Hendricks, Founder, ABC Supply Co, Inc., Chairman of the Board, Hendricks Holding Co., Inc., and Founder, Hendricks Family Foundation.
  • Mike Hawthorne, CEO, Waupaca Foundry
  • Nick Siler, President & CEO, Burger Boat Company

The Shifting Political Landscape: Analyzing America’s Evolving Dynamics and Future Challenges
Oct 23, 2025 • 12:13 PM

Condensed Summary
Over the past decade, U.S. politics, economics and demographics have all shifted dramatically. The traditional Democratic–Republican swing-voter model is breaking down, leaving executive action unchecked by parties. The post–World War II U.S.–led globalization system is fraying as tariffs rise and trade wars spur disinvestment. Simultaneously, societies worldwide are ageing: declining birth rates shift economies from consumption to capital-intensive, technocratic models. In the U.S., Baby Boomers are retiring en masse, draining capital and labor. Gen X, Millennials and Gen Z face distinct economic and social fates, affecting consumption, workforce supply and future growth. Manufacturing faces supply-chain chaos, raw-material shortages and the need for massive industrial reinvestment. If industrial construction and materials processing don’t ramp up quickly, the U.S. risks long-term decline approaching a Hoover-era collapse.

Detailed Bullet Points with Subtitles
Political Realignment

  • Traditional left-right/fiscal-social axes no longer capture today’s voter alliances.
  • Republican “alliance” is at its narrowest, unable to win federal elections alone.
  • Democrats have also mismanaged, losing ground even in cultural touchpoints (e.g., Village People).
  • Systemic party evolution takes 10–15 years; we’re only five years into the latest cycle.
  • In the absence of functioning parties, charismatic executives (e.g., Trump, Eisenhower) reshape the system.

From Empires to U.S.–Led Globalization

  • Pre-1940s: Empires expanded by force, fought over resources—led to world wars.
  • U.S. emerged with sole surviving navy, offered global security in exchange for alliance in Cold War.
  • Globalization backed by U.S. market access, indirect subsidy, and military umbrella.
  • Trade as share of U.S. GDP remains low by design; globalization was about strategic influence, not commerce alone.

Cold War to Post–Cold War Transition

  • End of Cold War offered chance to redraw security/trade order (Bush 41’s “What’s Next?”), but political will collapsed.
  • Every president since has doubled down on tariffs and immigration restrictions rather than reimagine the global framework.
  • Current U.S. strategy: bilateral tariff negotiations with dozens of countries simultaneously, generating policy chaos.

Global Demographic Shifts

  • Traditional pyramid (e.g., Nigeria) reflects high birth and death rates; industrialized nations invert this structure.
  • Urbanization and specialization turned children from farm assets into expenses, lowering birth rates.
  • Four-country model: Nigeria (urbanizing), India (mid-transition), Spain (late transition), Japan (post-transition).
  • Aging societies shift from consumption-driven growth to capital-rich, technocratic economies with slower growth but higher productivity.

U.S. Demographic Exceptions

  • Large land area and delayed urbanization kept U.S. birth rates higher decades longer.
  • Globalization subsidies slowed U.S. industrialization, delaying demographic maturity.
  • Only in past 15 years has U.S. birth rate fallen sharply, aligning with other developed nations.

Generation Spotlight: Boomers

  • Born 1946–1965; youngest are now 61, 80% retired or retiring by 65.
  • Massive withdrawal of capital from high-velocity investments (mortgages, loans), raising borrowing costs.
  • Unusually high rates of drug use among Boomers intensify healthcare/social burdens.
  • Boomers have drained resources, leaving Millennials and Gen X to shoulder future costs.

Generation Spotlight: Gen X

  • Second-smallest U.S. generation; outnumbered by Boomers 3:2 in workplaces.
  • Lowest wage growth of any U.S. generation—prioritized time/family over income.
  • Now enjoying highest wage gains but too few in number to fill retiring Boomer jobs.
  • Cannot solve labor shortage alone; influenced work-life balance norms for subsequent generations.

Generation Spotlight: Millennials

  • Entered workforce at 2007–2008 crash; lost 3–5 years of early career experience.
  • Split between stereotype (“lazy, narcissistic”) and high achievers who fast-tracked degrees and jobs.
  • Lowest per-hour skill generation; will play critical role in capital accumulation starting around 2030.
  • Delay in family formation means a “missed heartbeat” in national demographic pyramid, now recovering.

Generation Spotlight: Gen Z

  • Raised with focused parenting, constant supervision—“no-stick-around” policies at home.
  • Most technically adept, loyal virtual workers; prefer remote, independent cubicle-style work.
  • High rates of anxiety, medication and suicide demands enhanced mental-health infrastructure.
  • Long-term workforce entrants who will address labor gaps by 2045 when their births fill the lower pyramid again.

Regional Demographic Profiles

  • Midwest/South/Mountain West: high young-person shares, lighter diversity, robust workforce prospects.
  • Northeast: oldest and fastest-aging region; “crotchety” retiree concerns dominate politics.
  • California/Texas: similar age/racial structure but divergent politics; pockets of delayed Millennial family formation hinder labor supply.
  • Arizona: not just retirees—large working-age Hispanic workforce; bilingual labor constraints, not overall labor shortages.

China’s Demographic Crisis

  • Official data: fastest-aging population ever, more over-54 than under-54—potentially untenable economically.
  • Independent audit suggests up to 100 million under-40s “missing” from official registry due to local data manipulation.
  • China’s urban/permitted population data broke during COVID recovery—tax base and workforce projections in doubt.
  • If real, China’s collapse or steep contraction in 10–15 years could ripple through global tech and industrial supply chains.

U.S. Political Dysfunction & Executive Power

  • Parties can’t recruit or groom talent; senior civil-service slots largely empty from mass firings.
  • USDA, Commerce, Treasury, USTR understaffed—Trade deals negotiated on handshake, non-tariff barriers unaddressed.
  • Average of 533 tariff policy changes since Jan 2020; ambient chaos drives corporate caution and disinvestment.

Trade & Tariffs: Agriculture Strain

  • U.S. export-reliant farm sector: 70–90% of income gains since 1990 from abroad.
  • Trade wars slash demand: soy exports collapse; egg prices spike 340% under bird-flu and tariff disruptions.
  • USDA leadership reshuffled, plan-reversal incidents expose fragility of farm-policy administration.

Manufacturing Supply-Chain Chaos

  • Companies face three axes: local (few steps) vs. global (hundreds) supply chains; costs scale with tariffs.
  • Under heavy tariffs, firms shift high-complexity production offshore to avoid multi-step border duties.
  • Apple’s “China 90% → 91%” story: five years of supply-chain diversification yields only 1% change.
  • U.S. risk: short-term reshoring of low-cost jobs but long-term offshoring of high-value production.

Key Manufacturing Sectors at Risk

  • Electronics: 1,100 supply-chain steps; North America lacks the multi-tier ecosystem of East Asia.
  • Machinery: U.S. and Germany lead high-quality equipment; Houston (U.S.) second-rank for both quality tiers.
  • Semiconductors: 100,000 steps, 30,000 inputs, 9,000 firms; high-end fabs in Taiwan (90% share); cannot rebuild in U.S. quickly without entire ecosystem.

Industrial Materials and Critical Minerals

  • Crucial inputs (steel, aluminum, lithium, cobalt) dominated by China’s subsidized capacity.
  • U.S. needs massive ramp-up in domestic processing/refining: feasible in 2 years but not yet begun.
  • State grids must expand generation/distribution by 50% to meet planned industrial build-out.

State Manufacturing Vulnerabilities

  • Machinery-heavy states (e.g., Wisconsin, Michigan, Connecticut) face incoming manufacturing recession in 6 months.
  • Wisconsin’s unique machine-tool culture is a model but at risk of talent drain without new training pipelines.
  • States tied to aircraft, auto and farm equipment must retool for green tech and critical-minerals processing.

Industrial Construction Trends (Fed Index)

  • Industrial construction spending soared after COVID and IRA/CHIPS Acts, peaking recently.
  • New project starts have largely stalled amid tariff and policy uncertainty.
  • Prolonged decline in this index signals long-term industrial capacity erosion, risking national competitiveness.

Historical Warning: Hoover & the Great Depression

  • 1929 tariffs kicked off multi-phase global contraction; 30% U.S. GDP loss over three years.
  • Protectionism intended to “save jobs” instead compressed an inevitable adjustment into a crisis.
  • Modern U.S. intermediate-goods trade is five times 1929 levels; new barriers risk deeper, broader fallout.

Conclusions

  • U.S. political parties and trade systems are in mid-transition; executive power is unchecked, but policy chaos prevails.
  • Global demographics are shifting to older, capital-intensive economies; the U.S. is slightly behind but catching up fast.
  • Generational retirements create a 10-year capital shortage and a 20-year labor shortage; Millennials and Gen Z are key to recovery.
  • Manufacturing faces severe supply-chain, material and labor gaps; only rapid industrial construction and raw-material processing can narrow them.
  • Without coordinated investment and policy stability, the U.S. risks a prolonged decline echoing the Hoover era, but targeted action can avert crisis.

Peter Ziehan’s book is called The End of the World is just the Beginning.

Click this link to see this year’s speakers 

Click this link to see the Coolest Things Made in Wisconsin

Click this link for the Top Performing Rescue Airboat on the market – MADE in Wisconsin